{"id":477,"date":"2017-08-19T07:11:11","date_gmt":"2017-08-19T06:11:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/?p=477"},"modified":"2026-06-12T16:25:55","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T15:25:55","slug":"avoiding-financial-risk-sometimes-risky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/avoiding-financial-risk-sometimes-risky\/","title":{"rendered":"Financial Risk \u2013 Avoiding It Can Be Risky"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How well do you understand financial risk? On the face of it, it might seem obvious. If you invest in emerging markets, then it\u2019s very high risk. Your investments could fluctuate wildly, and you could lose everything. On the other hand, if you keep your money in National Savings, it\u2019s very low risk, since the government guarantees your capital. So once you know how tolerant you are of the risk of losing capital, does it follow that you would simply choose investments with a matching balance of risk and reward? Perhaps surprisingly, the answer is \u201cno\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The kind of risk we just described is what usually comes to mind when we think of financial risk. When investments fluctuate, it\u2019s known as \u201cvolatility\u201d. An investment with high volatility is riskier than an investment with low volatility. We\u2019re talking about short-term risk here. Over the long term, a risky investment may perform better than a safer one, but you might have to tolerate a very bumpy ride.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Long Term Financial Risk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" src=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/bankrupt-300x300.png\" alt=\"bankrupt\" class=\"wp-image-483\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/bankrupt-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/bankrupt-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/bankrupt-270x270.png 270w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/bankrupt.png 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s look at things a different way. Suppose you invest \u00a310,000 today, and plan to leave it to grow for 20 years. After this time, you know that you\u2019ll need to withdraw at least \u00a320,000 so you can pay off your mortgage debt. So you need to double your money. If you fail, no matter by how small an amount, you\u2019ll lose your home. (Yes, I know that&#8217;s a bit harsh, but it&#8217;s just an example!) Let\u2019s say that you have to choose between these two possible investments:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A fixed term National Savings bond that generates 3.5% compound interest per year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A unit trust investment in stocks and shares that has a 50-50 chance of at least doubling your money in 20 years, but a 1-in-4 chance of you ending up with less money that you started.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first choice will produce approximately \u00a319,900 after 20 years, which is \u00a3100 short of your target. It therefore has no chance at all of achieving your goal. But as an investment it has no risk at all of losing capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second choice offers a higher chance of meeting the target, despite its volatility. You&#8217;d have a 50-50 chance of losing your home. But with the first choice you\u2019d be certain to lose your home. The long-term risk of the second choice is less (much, much less) than that of the first choice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spending Risk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/flexibility-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"flexibility\" class=\"wp-image-487\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/flexibility-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/flexibility-360x240.jpg 360w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/flexibility.jpg 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As we\u2019ve seen, a good decision from a short-term risk perspective might be a bad one for long-term risk. Is that the end of the story? No, there\u2019s more. Let\u2019s say you\u2019re a retiree whose income is derived from drawing down on your investments. Then you might hope to set a level of spending that would be comfortable if continued for the rest of your life, adjusted each year for inflation. Depending on the kind of investments you hold, let\u2019s say that at the start you estimate the risk of going broke to be 5%. Now let\u2019s say that your investments lose 10% of their value in the first year. Your risk of running out of money will have certainly increased. So you have a choice:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>You could hope that over time your investments will recover, and continue spending at the same level.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or you could adjust your spending downwards, so that the risk of going broke by sticking to that level is once again 5%.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By following a strategy of adjusting spending, you may be able to reduce the risk of going broke to a very low level. But there\u2019s a cost, in that you\u2019d have to be willing to tolerate fluctuating spending. So by consciously following the second strategy, you\u2019re converting the long-term risk of going broke into a continuous risk of having to vary your spending. For many people, being more flexible in their spending is preferable to living with the risk of going broke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s not quite so black and white though. It&#8217;s likely your spending cannot realistically fall below a certain minimum. This limits the extent to which you can adjust your spending, so you may not be able to completely eliminate the risk of going broke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Juggling Financial Risk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" src=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/juggle-money-300x300.jpg\" alt=\"juggle-financial-risk\" class=\"wp-image-488\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/juggle-money-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/juggle-money-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/juggle-money-270x270.jpg 270w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/juggle-money.jpg 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019ve identified three different types of financial risk:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Short-term risk of investment fluctuations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Long-term risk of going broke.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Spending risk \u2013 having to be flexible in our spending patterns.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One way to eliminate these risks is through a lifetime annuity with index\u2011linked payments. But the income you get from an annuity may not meet your spending aspirations, especially with annuity rates as low as they currently are. Also the annuity will die with you, so there\u2019s normally no legacy. And there\u2019s always the slight risk that the insurance company paying the annuity will go bust.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There\u2019s a trade-off to be made between tolerance of the different types of risk and the amount you\u2019re hoping to spend. How you juggle these risks depends very much upon your own attitudes. For example, a strategy involving high\u2011risk investments may be difficult to follow if you are likely to panic\u2011sell during downturns, even if it is designed to reduce long-term risk. And a strategy based on flexible spending may also be challenging if adjusting spending is difficult in practice. Any strategy has to be workable in practice and aligned with your own behaviours and preferences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Maybe you\u2019re fortunate enough to have all your retirement spending needs met by a defined benefit pension. If not, you&#8217;ll face trade\u2011offs between risk and reward, and between different types of financial risk. This is a complex task, and many people choose to work with a qualified financial adviser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EvolveMyRetirement\u00ae, the <a href=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/\">Intelligent Financial Calculator<\/a>, has built-in rules that help it juggle risk against reward, based upon your stated attitudes and preferences. This can give you a clear indication of how different strategies might behave, and help set your expectations before taking matters further with your financial adviser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How well do you understand financial risk? On the face of it, it might seem obvious. If you invest in emerging markets, then it\u2019s very high risk. Your investments could fluctuate wildly, and you could lose everything. On the other<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":494,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Financial Risk \u2013 Avoiding It Can Be Risky - EvolveMyRetirement<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"How well do you understand financial risk? 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