{"id":329,"date":"2017-04-27T16:57:46","date_gmt":"2017-04-27T15:57:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/?p=329"},"modified":"2026-06-13T06:59:02","modified_gmt":"2026-06-13T05:59:02","slug":"illusion-wealth-poverty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/illusion-wealth-poverty\/","title":{"rendered":"Illusion: Would You Choose \u00a31 Million Or \u00a350,000 Per Year?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let me clarify the choice a bit. The choice is between receiving a cash lump sum of \u00a31 million, or a fixed yearly payment of \u00a350,000 for life. The answer <em>may<\/em> indicate whether you have an illusion of wealth or of poverty!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many people will consider this choice to be a no-brainer. But it might surprise them to learn that some other people would give the opposite answer, and that those other people too would consider it a no-brainer!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recently the Wall Street Journal posed a similar question to its readers in an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/would-you-rather-have-1-million-or-5-000-monthly-in-retirement-1490582208\" target=\"_blank\">article<\/a>,&nbsp;which was geared towards its US readership. It was based on research in which they participated, which found that some people have an \u2018illusion of wealth\u2019, whereas others have an \u2018illusion of poverty\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Guaranteed Fixed Income<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/calendar-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"guaranteed-income\" class=\"wp-image-315\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/calendar-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/calendar-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/calendar-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/calendar.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As it happens if a man of average health aged 65 spent \u00a31 million on an annuity that paid a fixed income, it would generate around \u00a350,000 per year for life. The researchers assumed that this means that the two choices are roughly equivalent for a 65 year old man. I\u2019d question this assumption, as I&#8217;ll explain later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s worth noting that the younger one is, the greater the relative value is of the \u00a350,000 per year. The older one is, the more the \u00a31m becomes more valuable, since it\u2019s less likely to have to last so long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Based on the Wall Street Journal research, we&#8217;re supposed to consider people who choose \u00a31 million as having the \u2018illusion of wealth\u2019; those who choose \u00a350,000 per year we should consider as having the \u2018illusion of poverty\u2019. Let\u2019s check this out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How Much Should We Actually Spend?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"552\" src=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/shopping.jpg\" alt=\"spending\" class=\"wp-image-324\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/shopping.jpg 640w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/shopping-300x259.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You might imagine that having a fixed income of \u00a350,000 a year means that we could spend it all. But that would be an illusion. Actually, you could only spend it all if you had no expenses, and your only spending was on luxuries. In other words, if you only had discretionary spending. Unfortunately, that\u2019s never the case. Everyone has certain necessary expenditure, and this tends to increase with inflation. But a fixed income, by definition, never increases. So if you live long enough on a fixed income, and you spend all of it, eventually your expenses will be more than your income. That\u2019s not what we want at all. At just 3% average inflation, our expenses would double in about 23 years!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysing Spending<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"793\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/expenses-screen.jpg\" alt=\"analyse-spending\" class=\"wp-image-264\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/expenses-screen.jpg 793w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/expenses-screen-300x208.jpg 300w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/expenses-screen-768x533.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 793px) 100vw, 793px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s assume a 65 year-old single man had necessary expenses of \u00a320,000 per year. Then he would need to consider a level of discretionary spending that allows him to build up savings. Then, if he were lucky enough to live for a long time, he could supplement his fixed income by drawing down on savings. How much discretionary spending would be sustainable? That would depend on a number of factors, the most important of which are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Whether or not he hopes to leave a legacy<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>His risk tolerance<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>His investment strategy<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s assume he doesn\u2019t have any interest in leaving a legacy. Also, let\u2019s assume that he has an average risk tolerance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I used the EvolveMyRetirement\u00ae <a href=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/\">calculator<\/a> to explore what level of discretionary spending appeared sustainable. Unlike a human,\u00a0EvolveMyRetirement\u00ae doesn&#8217;t suffer from any illusions or wealth or of poverty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Generating a number of strategies, assuming\u00a0a fixed income of \u00a350,000 per year, I found that it consistently came up with a strategy with starting discretionary spending of \u00a36,500 per year. In other words, total spending started at \u00a326,500. The failure rate for this strategy was 3%, which aligned with the assumption of average risk tolerance. When I manually increased the spending just slightly, the risk increased substantially.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I wanted to see how this compared to the case where he started with \u00a31 million. So I changed the starting numbers accordingly, and the results surprised me. EvolveMyRetirement\u00ae consistently came up with discretionary spending starting at \u00a38,500, which is \u00a32,000 more than the previous case. I was even more surprised to see that this level of discretionary spending had extremely low modelled risk. Looking more closely at the strategy, I saw that it\u00a0involved buying an index-linked annuity with all available funds at the earliest opportunity. That explained how the risk was eliminated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Illusion Of Having The Illusion Of Wealth?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"556\" src=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/illusion-1024x556.jpg\" alt=\"optical-illusion\" class=\"wp-image-317\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/illusion-1024x556.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/illusion-300x163.jpg 300w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/illusion-768x417.jpg 768w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/illusion.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This same level of risk reduction is not available to a man on \u00a350,000 per year. Even if every year he saved the difference between what he earned and what he spent, and used the money to buy annuities, it would not generate enough extra income to safely allow for higher spending. Even if we assume that there&#8217;s no tax on his income, trying to start spending at \u00a328,500 per year would result in a 9% chance of going broke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To summarise, by starting spending at \u00a328,500 per year, and increasing it each year by inflation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Having \u00a31 million cash results in extremely low modelled risk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Having \u00a350,000 per year has a 9% modelled chance of going broke.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, under these assumptions, \u00a31 million appears more valuable to a 65 year old man than \u00a350,000 per year. So when the research cited by the Wall Street Journal says that someone choosing a lump sum has the \u2018illusion of wealth\u2019, this is\u00a0based on a false comparison to the equivalent fixed-income annuity. As we\u2019ve seen, this comparison does not stand up to more realistic cash flow planning, and the illusion of wealth (in this case) is not really an illusion at all!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Real-World Retirement Planning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/financial-planning-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"retirement-planning\" class=\"wp-image-265\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/financial-planning-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/financial-planning-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/financial-planning-768x513.jpg 768w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/financial-planning-360x240.jpg 360w, https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/financial-planning.jpg 1687w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What does this mean? How does it help us with our own retirement planning? Well, there are a number of implications, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fixed annuities can be risky due to inflation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Risk may need to be reassessed as circumstances change with age<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Risk tolerance plays a role in shaping spending decisions<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It\u2019s complex, and seeking help is a common choice<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EvolveMyRetirement\u00ae is the <a href=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/\">Intelligent Financial Calculator<\/a>. It can help you gain insight into your financial future. The complexity of retirement planning means that many people choose to seek assistance from a qualified independent financial adviser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Editor&#8217;s Note: An earlier version of this article mistakenly suggested that \u00a316,000 was a safe level of discretionary spending when starting with \u00a31 million. This was based on erroneous assumptions, and has now been corrected.<\/em><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let me clarify the choice a bit. The choice is between receiving a cash lump sum of \u00a31 million, or a fixed yearly payment of \u00a350,000 for life. The answer may indicate whether you have an illusion of wealth or<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":313,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Illusion: Would You Choose \u00a31 Million Or \u00a350,000 Per Year? - EvolveMyRetirement<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Do you have the illusion of wealth or of poverty? 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