{"id":1174,"date":"2020-07-20T05:12:46","date_gmt":"2020-07-20T04:12:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/?p=1174"},"modified":"2026-06-11T06:08:18","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T05:08:18","slug":"uncertainty-principle-retirement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/uncertainty-principle-retirement\/","title":{"rendered":"The Uncertainty Principle of Retirement"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Physics may not be your thing, but you&#8217;ve probably heard of the uncertainty principle; even if you&#8217;re a bit uncertain (sorry) about exactly what it is. Well, in a nutshell (according to <a aria-label=\"undefined (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/science\/uncertainty-principle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Encyclopaedia Britannica<\/a>), it states that you can&#8217;t measure both the position and the velocity of an object exactly. The more accurately you try to pin down one, the more uncertain the other becomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Imagine a world without uncertainty<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Before scientists discovered the laws of quantum mechanics, they&#8217;d assumed that the universe ran like clockwork. If you knew the present accurately enough, you could predict the future precisely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There&#8217;s an analogy in the field of retirement planning. Many people want to precisely plan their future finances till the end of their life. To do that you would need to know exactly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>How long you&#8217;ll live.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How well your investments will perform.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What inflation there&#8217;ll be.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Etc.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are plenty of retirement planning tools that will let you do this. They assume that the future is predictable. They ignore uncertainty. So if you invest your money in shares, it assumes it will grow at a steady rate year after year, for example 7%. If your life expectancy is 30 years, say, then it assumes that&#8217;s precisely how long your money needs to last. It may also assume that the cost of living will rise by exactly the same amount every year, say 3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes, it makes the world simpler to ignore uncertainly. But it&#8217;s just not the world we actually live in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Will the cat ever reach retirement?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You&#8217;ve probably also heard about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/biography\/Erwin-Schrodinger\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Schr\u00f6dinger&#8217;s cat<\/a>, and that it&#8217;s got something to do with the uncertainty principle. Schr\u00f6dinger asked us to imagine placing a cat in a sealed box together with a killing device triggered by the decay of a radioactive atom. Until we open the box, there&#8217;s no way of knowing for sure whether the cat is dead or alive. In fact it&#8217;s both, at least in a sense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retirement planning is a bit like this. Our money may run out during our lifetime (the cat dies), or it won&#8217;t (the cat lives). Until we open the box of our lives by living it till the end, we won&#8217;t know for sure. There are a myriad scenarios that might play out. Some may lead to ruin. Others may lead to prosperity. They&#8217;re all plausible futures, some more likely than others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Luckily we don&#8217;t need to understand quantum mechanics to take retirement planning uncertainty into account. But it does make things more complicated, requiring more sophisticated tools. Without them we&#8217;re fooling ourselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Embracing uncertainty<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Luckily there are techniques that can help us with retirement planning in the face of uncertainty. A widely recognised technique is <a href=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/monte-carlo-simulation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Monte Carlo Simulation<\/a>. This runs a large number of randomly generated scenarios, and then statistically analyses the results. This way we can learn how likely our retirement strategy is to succeed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our <a aria-label=\"undefined (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Intelligent Financial Planning Calculator<\/a> has Monte Carlo Simulation built into it. What makes it unique is that it uses a <a href=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/genetic-algorithms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Genetic Algorithm<\/a> to generate modelled strategies aligned with your stated objectives, even in the face of uncertainty. Navigating uncertainty just got a whole lot easier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Physics may not be your thing, but you&#8217;ve probably heard of the uncertainty principle; even if you&#8217;re a bit uncertain (sorry) about exactly what it is. Well, in a nutshell (according to Encyclopaedia Britannica), it states that you can&#8217;t measure<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":611,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[30,35,9,34],"class_list":["post-1174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-genetic-algorithm","tag-monte-carlo","tag-retirement-planning","tag-uncertainty"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Uncertainty Principle of Retirement - EvolveMyRetirement<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The uncertainty principle has an analogue in the world of retirement planning. 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Learn how EvolveMyRetirement embraces uncertainty to optimise outcomes.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/uncertainty-principle-retirement\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EvolveMyRetirement\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/evolvemyretirement\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-07-20T04:12:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-06-11T05:08:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/evolvemyretirement.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/house-cards-dice.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"426\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Nick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@evolvemyretire\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@evolvemyretire\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Nick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/uncertainty-principle-retirement\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/uncertainty-principle-retirement\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Nick\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/927febeaea45f5b77b454c800da0e5b8\"},\"headline\":\"The Uncertainty Principle of Retirement\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-07-20T04:12:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-06-11T05:08:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/uncertainty-principle-retirement\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":554,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/uncertainty-principle-retirement\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/house-cards-dice.png\",\"keywords\":[\"genetic algorithm\",\"Monte Carlo\",\"retirement planning\",\"uncertainty\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/uncertainty-principle-retirement\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/uncertainty-principle-retirement\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/uncertainty-principle-retirement\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Uncertainty Principle of Retirement - EvolveMyRetirement\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/uncertainty-principle-retirement\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/uncertainty-principle-retirement\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/evolvemyretirement.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/house-cards-dice.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-07-20T04:12:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-06-11T05:08:18+00:00\",\"description\":\"The uncertainty principle has an analogue in the world of retirement planning. 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